757: 太平洋地區維持太平

中國從渤海核子潛艇向太平洋群島發射了沒有彈頭的長程導彈, 引起包括澳洲等區內國家的不滿, 有要求把太平洋地區成為一個協作防衛地區的倡議, 相信會得到不少國家的支持。

中國並不是唯一國家向這地區作出導彈發射或者核子裝置試驗的國家, 中國也表明這一次的發射並非為針對區內的國家的行為。時事分析家認為這是一次向美國表明中國有能力發射長程導彈, 意味著美國的一大部分, 已成為中國軍事攻擊的範圍。這是要向美國說明當中國與台灣或與其它國家有政治衝突, 若然爆發軍事行動時, 美國要知道中國有一定的軍事力量影響美國本土。

對於澳洲來說, 這一次長程導彈的發射, 表明澳洲也走進了中國軍事力量的影響範圍。由中國本土發射導彈射程達9000公里, 已能覆蓋澳洲多個主要城巿, 但這並不表示中國正在向澳洲發出威嚇。在過去三十多年間, 中國已經在經濟、貿易、生產及供應等領域上, 展示出她在澳洲的影響力, 而澳洲亦非軍事強國, 不會有可能對中國的安全構成威脅, 因此中國根本不必要向澳洲施行武力或軍事威嚇。

不過, 從澳洲本身安全及保護自己國民生活層面來說, 把太平洋地區劃成非軍事區, 限制各國在這地區的軍事行動, 是對澳洲及這地區國家絕對有利的政策。而這地區內的大小國家組成聯合防衛協議, 例如上週澳洲與菲濟簽訂的互相協助防衛的「和平海洋」協議, 正是在這地區除西蘭外的太平洋島國的第一條協議。這協議也有條文歡迎有更多國家加入, 而新西蘭亦已率先表示極有興趣, 相信很快會有更多區內國家加入。

歷史上, 國與國之間常以戰爭解決大家之間因利益、意識形態、及宗教等不同原因導致的衝突。不過, 自第一次大戰後, 西方國家都學會了,要長期管治一群抗爭的人民, 對自身都沒有好處。除非人們打算要回到把敵人完全消滅的野蠻管治手段, 以戰爭侵略別國都是不可取的行為。我只盼望澳洲的政治領袖能有領袖能力, 聯合太平洋其它小國, 倡導並推進這地區的和平。

周偉文 社長

Peace Maintained in the Pacific Region

China launched a long-range missile without a warhead from a nuclear submarine toward the Pacific island region, prompting dissatisfaction from regional countries including Australia. There have been calls to make the Pacific a region of cooperative defense, and this initiative is likely to gain support from many countries.

China is not the only country to have launched missiles or conducted nuclear device tests in this region. China has also stated that it does not regard this launch as an act directed against countries in the region. Current affairs analysts believe this was a demonstration to the United States that China has the capability to launch long-range missiles, indicating that a large portion of the United States has come within the range of China’s military strike capability. The message to the United States is that if political conflicts between China and Taiwan or other countries lead to military action, the United States should understand that China possesses sufficient military strength to impact on the U.S. mainland.

For Australia, this long-range missile launch indicates that Australia has also come within the reach of China’s military capabilities. A missile launched from mainland China over a distance of 9,000 kilometres is capable of covering Australia’s major cities, but this does not mean that China is threatening Australia. Over the past thirty years or more, China has already demonstrated its influence in Australia through the economy, trade, manufacturing, and supply chains. Australia is not a military power and is unlikely to pose a threat to China’s security. Therefore, China has no real need to use force or military intimidation against Australia.

However, from the perspective of Australia’s own security and the protection of its citizens’ way of life, designating the Pacific region as a demilitarized zone and restricting military activities by all countries in the region would be a policy that is unquestionably beneficial to Australia and other countries of the region. Likewise, an agreement among the large and small countries of the region for joint defense—such as the “Ocean of Peace” mutual defense agreement signed last week between Australia and Fiji, the first of such agreement with a Pacific island nation outside New Zealand—is a step in that direction. The agreement also welcomes more countries to join, and New Zealand has already expressed strong interest. It is believed that more countries will join soon.

Historically, countries have often resolved conflicts over interests, ideology, religion, and other differences through war. However, since the First World War, Western countries have learned that ruling populations engaged in prolonged resistance is ultimately not in their own interests. Unless humanity returns to the barbaric practice of completely exterminating its enemies, otherwise using war to invade other countries is not an acceptable approach. I only hope that Australia’s political leaders will show true leadership by joining up the other small Pacific nations to advocate for peace throughout the region.

Mr. Raymond Chow, Publisher