美國特朗普總統在上週五公佈的全球對等關稅政策, 讓整個世界陷入震盪之中。本週一全球各股票巿場無一倖免地在極短時間內下跌數個百分點, 表明了整個世界都知道全球經濟結構將會有極大調整。

八年前美國與中國開啟貿易戰, 當時要解決的是美國貿易逆差, 但到了今天特朗普提出的是美國被全球國家「欺凌」多年, 從美國「竊取」財富的問題。他把兩國之間貿易差額看成為不可接受, 而拒絕看到美國企業在全球各國取得的大量經濟利益, 可以說他是要美國在任何一方面, 都成為贏家。他設立關稅的目的, 也很明確是要美國在與別國交往時, 都取得絕對利益。這樣的政策, 明顯是霸淩。

特朗普開打關稅戰, 是按著他競選時「使美國再次偉大」的目標。不過, 達成這目標與今天全球化及經濟一體化的思維並不吻合。在全球化的目標下, 國與國之間的共贏變成維持世界和平及合作的基礎。明顯地特朗普認全球各國都在美國取得利益, 特別是中國在經濟上「侵略」了美國, 令到美國失去了工業及各方面的優勢, 並且變成負債累累。他相信使用關稅這把利劍, 可以讓世界各國向美國作出讓步, 使美國從負債中走出來。

從歷史看來, 特朗普是有成功的可能性, 不過代價是全球各國的經濟及人民生活將付出代價。例如, 美國在軍事上退出保護歐洲, 不再支持烏克蘭對抗俄羅斯, 歐洲國家就要在未來付出8400億歐元重新武裝保護自己, 這是特朗普向美國人述說所取得的成功。

在1985年美國與日本及其它發達國家簽訂《廣場協議》, 意圖以美元有秩序貶值來解決美國與日本的巨額貿易逆差, 結果導致日本經濟長期出現衰退。40年後, 美國遇上與中國出現同樣問題, 特朗普使用關稅戰或許會成功解決美國的困局, 不過很有可能付上代價的是全球國家。

中國的回應是提出報復性關稅, 而特朗普聲言會對中國再增加50%關稅。要是這情況真的出現的話, 全球經濟將變得更動盪, 而且影響將會是長期, 世界經濟結構將會走進一個不可知的未來。

不過, 對我來說, 世界不管變得如何, 仍然掌控在那創造天地及歷史的神手中, 所以我們仍可以有平靜安穩。你同意嗎?

周偉文, 社長

The Unknown Future

Last Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled a global tariff policy that has caused a shock around the world. On Monday of this week, global stock markets experienced a sharp decline of several percentage points in a very short period, indicating that everyone understands that the global economic structure will undergo significant adjustments.

Eight years ago, the U.S. and China entered into a trade war aimed at addressing America’s trade deficit. However, today, Trump’s focus is on how the U.S. is being “bullied” by other nations and how wealth is being “stolen” from America. He views the trade imbalance with another country as unacceptable and refuses to recognize the economic benefits U.S. companies are gaining in other countries. Essentially, Trump wants the U.S. to be a winner in every aspect. His goal in implementing tariffs is clear: to ensure that the U.S. gains absolute benefits when interacting with other nations. This kind of policy is clearly hegemonic.

Trump’s tariff war is in line with his campaign slogan of “Make America Great Again.” However, achieving this goal does not align with the current era of globalization and economic integration. Under globalization, the goal is for countries to achieve mutual benefits, which forms the foundation of world peace and cooperation. Clearly, Trump believes that other countries have benefited at the U.S.’s expense, especially China, which has “aggressively” taken economic advantages from the U.S., leading to the loss of industrial and other advantages for America, thus driving it into debt. He believes that using tariffs as a weapon will force countries to make concessions to the U.S., allowing it to escape its debt crisis.

Recapping on history, Trump might have a chance to achieve what he wants, but the cost will be borne by the global economy and the living standards of people worldwide. For example, if the U.S. withdraws its military protection from Europe and stops supporting Ukraine’s defense against Russia, European countries would need to spend 840 billion euros to re-arm and protect themselves. This is the kind of ‘success story’ Trump wants to sell to the American people.

In 1985, the U.S. signed the Plaza Accord with Japan and other developed countries, intending to orderly depreciate the dollar to address the massive trade deficit then with Japan. The result, however, was that Japan’s economy entered a long period of decline. Forty years later, the U.S. faces a similar problem with China. Trump’s tariff war might succeed in resolving America’s issues, but the cost will likely fall on the global community.

China’s response has been to impose retaliatory tariffs, while Trump has declared that he will increase tariffs on China by another 50%. If this situation occurs, the global economic landscape will become even more volatile, and the effects will be long-term. The world’s economic structure will move into an uncertain future.

However, for me, regardless of how the world changes, it is still in the Lord’s hands that created the world and history. Therefore, we can still be in peace calmly. Do you agree?

Mr. Raymond Chow, Publisher