748 當和平不再理所當然

美國與以色列對伊朗發動軍事攻擊後，中東局勢迅速升溫。伊朗隨即向海灣阿拉伯國家發動無差別攻擊，然而在伊斯蘭世界之中，支持伊朗的聲音卻並不多見。即使與伊朗長期保持密切經貿關係、每月大量購買石油並提供軍備的中國，也僅是呼籲美以兩國尊重伊朗主權，並未在軍事或政治層面表明更具體的支持行動。歐洲多國雖對美國入侵伊朗表達關注，但整體而言仍在軍事調動及後勤方面配合美軍。對許多國家來說，更大的憂慮其實在於戰事對全球航運、經濟、貿易與安全秩序可能帶來的衝擊。

美國總統特朗普對攻擊伊朗的目標與後續策略，至今仍未清楚說明。不過在衝突的第一週，美方確實取得了明顯的軍事成果。據報導，首日行動已擊斃伊朗最高領袖哈梅內伊及四十多名核心領導層成員，使伊朗在短時間內陷入指揮混亂，回應顯得缺乏章法。外界亦開始擔憂，伊朗未來是否仍能維持有效的政治與社會治理。

隨後，伊朗專家會議迅速推舉哈梅內伊之子穆傑塔巴接任最高領袖。然而特朗普政府已公開表示，不會接受延續其父親的反美與仇恨政策，因此穆傑塔巴能否順利接任，甚至能否確保安全，仍充滿變數。

另一方面，伊朗宣佈以武力封鎖霍爾木茲海峽，阻止中東各國石油出口，等同將自己置於與世界為敵的處境。試圖以衝擊全球經濟來迫使美以兩國讓步，卻反而引發更多國家的反感。伊朗總統裴澤斯基安一度向國際社會表達歉意，希望爭取支持，但軍方仍持續對其他國家發動攻擊，顯示伊朗內部權力結構可能正陷入分裂與失控。

然而，美國與以色列是否能長期維持目前的軍事行動，同樣存在疑問。兩國領導人在國內能否持續得到政治與民意支持，也是未知之數。即使目前在軍事上佔據優勢，戰爭所帶來的龐大經濟成本與軍力消耗，是否能長期承受，將成為未來需要面對的重要考驗。

可以說，世界正站在一個歷史性的轉折點上。戰爭提醒我們，人類無法再自我安慰，以為和平必然會延續。在這樣充滿不確定的時代，人類更需要謙卑地承認自身的有限與軟弱。我們的無知、驕傲與對世界的不負責任，往往帶來對他人甚至對自身的傷害。

在動盪與不安之中，信仰提醒我們，歷史並非完全掌握在人手中。唯有仰望那位掌管歷史的神，才能在動盪的時代裡得到勇氣與盼望。當世界進入艱難的日子，人類或許更需要重新學習謙卑、反省與祈禱，求神與我們同行，帶領我們走過這段充滿挑戰的歷史時刻。

周偉文 社長

When Peace Is No Longer Taken for Granted

After the United States and Israel launched military attacks against Iran, tensions in the Middle East quickly escalated. Iran subsequently launched indiscriminate attacks against the Arab Gulf states. However, within the Islamic world, voices supporting Iran have been relatively scarce. Even China, which has long maintained close economic and trade relations with Iran—through purchasing large quantities of oil every month and supplying military equipment—has only called on the United States and Israel to respect Iran’s sovereignty, without offering more concrete support at the military or political level. Although several European countries have expressed concern about the U.S. invasion of Iran, they have generally continued to go along with the U.S. military in terms of troop movements and logistics. For many nations, the greater concern rather lies in the potential impact of the conflict on global shipping, the economy, trade, and the international security order.

U.S. President Trump has not yet clearly explained the objectives or follow-up strategy behind the attack on Iran. Nevertheless, during the first week of the conflict, the United States reportedly achieved notable military results. Reports indicate that on the first day of the operation, Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and more than forty core members of the leadership were killed, plunging Iran into command chaos in a short period of time and leaving its response disorganized. Observers have also begun to worry about whether Iran will still be able to maintain effective political and social governance in the future.

Shortly afterward, Iran’s Assembly of Experts quickly selected Mojtaba, the son of Khamenei, to succeed as Supreme Leader. However, the Trump administration has publicly stated that it will not accept the continuation of his father’s anti-American and hostile policies. Therefore, whether Mojtaba will be able to assume the position smoothly—or even ensure his own safety—remains highly uncertain.

Meanwhile, Iran announced that it would blockade the Strait of Hormuz by force, preventing oil exports from Middle Eastern countries. This move effectively has placed Iran in opposition to the world. The attempt to pressure the United States and Israel into concessions by disrupting the global economy instead has triggered resentment from even more countries. Iran’s President Pezeshkian once expressed apologies to the international community in an attempt to gain support, but the military has continued launching attacks on other nations, suggesting that Iran’s internal power structure may be falling into division and loss of control.

However, it is also uncertain whether the United States and Israel can sustain their current military operations over the long term. Whether the leaders of both countries can continue to maintain political and public support at home is also unknown. Even if they are currently holding a military advantage, the enormous economic costs and military expenditures brought about by war will pose an important test in the future.

It can be said that the world now stands at a historic turning point. War reminds us that humanity can no longer comfort itself with the assumption that peace will naturally come by. In such an uncertain era, humanity needs to humbly acknowledge its own limitations and weaknesses. Our ignorance, arrogance, and irresponsibility toward the world often bring harm to others—and even to ourselves.

Mr. Raymond Chow, Publisher