聯邦政府財政預算案公佈了，相信總理很快就會公佈大選日期。

一直以內總理阿爾巴尼斯的軟弱領導形象令工黨的支持下跌， 反對黨領袖達頓藉此重建形象，以強勢領導者帶領自由黨， 獲得不少支持。

美國大選期間，反對黨及領袖達頓的支持率都在上升並且超過工黨，達頓也不自覺地模仿著特朗普的強硬，有不少人相信阿爾巴尼斯領導的工黨很有可能變成一任政府。特朗普上台執政，短短兩個月之間，在美國雷厲風行推出各種「使美國再次偉大」的強硬政策，包括移民、減少政府開支、急速從世界政治舞台離開、向全球各國徵收關稅、重建美國工業等， 在國內確實得到不少美國人的認同和支持。不過， 他的極權及對盟國漠不關心甚至損害他們安全及利益的態度，改變了全世界對美國的信任。

澳洲人崇尚自由民主， 大多數人都不滿特朗普的傲慢。不過更多人關注的是澳洲與美國及英國在2021年簽訂的AUKUS安全合作， 是否在美國實行孤立主義時， 真的符合澳洲的需要。兩大政黨在這問題上的態度， 很有可能成為澳洲選民關注的焦點。

自由黨內不少人都較為認同特朗普的強勢管治，也使達頓在今次選舉中陷於兩難。維持強勢領袖形象，可能令自由黨士氣大振，但卻令選民卻步。直到今天， 自由黨並沒有提出任何解決澳洲經濟或是民生問題的具體方案，基本上反對黨只是批評現屆政府的無能。不過直到今天， 澳洲人就算生活成本維持高企，薪金及生產力停滯不前，但失業率又不算太高，倚靠社會福利過活的情況並不嚴重。企業破產情況並未大幅增加而房屋價格又沒有明顯下調，顯示社會未曾陷進經濟恐慌狀態。

在這情況之下， 自由黨要單靠打擊政府管治威信而爭取選民支持， 看來並不容易。最近民意調查，顯示隨著澳洲人對美國新政的懷疑和失望，澳洲選民對達頓及自由黨的支持正在下降。

有人認為澳洲將很大機會再次進入少數派政府，仍由工黨繼續執政， 或許在未來數週競選活動開始後會更加明朗。不過，可以肯定的是上一屆出現的獨立議員潮將會持續，兩大政黨都未必能夠奪回失去的席位，而少數族裔在關鍵選區的影響力會持續具決定性。可以說澳洲的政治走向，很可能主要受邊緣選區的本地政治及移民關注的政策所左右。

周偉文 社長

Uncertainties of the Federal Election

The federal government’s budget has been announced,  it is believed that the Prime Minister will soon announce the date for the federal election.

Prime Minister Albanese’s image of weak leadership has led to a decline in support for the Labor Party, while opposition leader Dutton has used this opportunity to rebuild his image, portraying himself as a strong leader for the Liberal Party, gaining considerable support.

During the US election, both the opposition party and leader Dutton’s approval ratings rose and even surpassed those of the Labor Party. Dutton has also unconsciously started to mimic Trump’s hardline approach, with many believing that Albanese’s leadership could result in a one-term government. When Trump took office, within just two months, he aggressively implemented various “Make America Great Again” policies, including immigration, cutting government spending, rapidly retreating from the global political stage, imposing tariffs on countries, and rebuilding American industries. This approach gained significant support from many Americans. However, his authoritarian style and disregard for allied nations, even harming their security and interests, changed the global perception of the United States.

Australians value freedom and democracy, and most are dissatisfied with Trump’s arrogance. However, more people are concerned about whether Australia’s security cooperation under AUKUS, signed with the US and UK in 2021, truly serves Australia’s needs if the US adopts an isolationist stance. The stance of both major parties on this issue is likely to become a focal point for Australian voters.

Within the Liberal Party, many members support Trump’s strong governance, which has placed Dutton in a dilemma during this election. Maintaining a strong leader image could boost party morale, but it might also deter voters. To this day, the Liberal Party has not presented any specific proposals to address Australia’s economic or social issues. The opposition has largely focused on criticizing the current government’s ineffectiveness. However, despite the high cost of living, with stagnating wages and productivity, unemployment is still relatively low, and dependence on social welfare is not a widespread phenomenon. Business bankruptcies have not surged, and housing prices have not shown significant declines, indicating that society has not fallen into any economic disaster.

In this context, it seems difficult for the Liberal Party to solely rely on undermining the government’s credibility to win electorate support. Recent polls indicate that as Australians grow more sceptical and disappointed with the new US policies, support for Dutton and the Liberal Party is declining.

Some believe that Australia is likely to enter another minority government, with the Labor Party continuing to govern. This may become clearer as the election campaign heats up in the coming weeks. However, it is certain that the trend of independent members of parliament from the last election could continue, and the two major parties may not be able to regain the lost seats. The influence of minority groups in key electorates will remain decisive. It can be said that Australia’s political direction would likely be primarily shaped by local politics in marginal electorates and policies focused on immigration.

Mr. Raymond Chow, Publisher